Podcast: tariff uncertainty stalls US steel prices

The United States’ recent surge in steel prices has stalled as many businesses feel “paralysed” by uncertainty about import tariffs, according to MEPS’s new podcast.

US steel market analyst Laura Hodges said April’s research for MEPS’s International Steel Review showed that the recent upward trend, which delivered a near-40% rise in hot rolled coil prices in quarter one, had halted. Procurement has stalled as buyers consider the effect of import tariffs on key steel consuming sectors.

Speaking to MEPS managing editor Tom Sharpe in a short-form Market in Minutes episode of the Speaking of Steel podcast, Hodges said: “I hate to say the word paralysed, but companies cannot plan ahead with this type of uncertainty.

“So, as for the outlook, we have prices continuing that ‘breather’ for the next couple of months, primarily just due to the uncertainty. I think that prices are going to sit in this holding pattern in May and into June. After that I think we see prices start to fall back.”

MEPS’s new episode of Market in Minutes can be viewed via your favoured podcast platform. Click below to access the US-themed discussion:

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Despite Department of Commerce estimates that US GDP shrank by 0.3% in quarter one of this year, Hodges does not believe that the country will slip into recession. The recent downturn has been attributed to the effect of increased imports during the reported period. Volumes increased as exporters attempted to expedite shipments to avoid the incoming tariffs.

MEPS’s new Market in Minutes episodes reflects on the latest developments in the US steel market, less than two months after US President Donald Trump reinstated the United States 25% Section 232 tariff on steel and automotive imports. Last month President Trump also announced a 90-day pause on the United States’ previously announced higher rate “reciprocal” import tariffs of 11-50%.

The uncertainty resulting from recent tariff announcements initially prompted US steelmakers to increase their prices, amid expectations of reduced low-cost steel imports. MEPS recently provided insight into the positive effect of increased protectionism on the profit margins achieved by some of the largest steelmakers in the US. However, MEPS’s research respondents in the US reported no uptick in demand and little indication of a slowdown in steel imports.

These subjects, and more, are discussed in MEPS’s latest, US-themed Market in Minutes podcast. Watch now for insight into US steel price trends and more of the following:

• No slowdown: the changing dynamic of US steel imports
• Further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts unlikely to boost steel sector in coming months
• Automotive sector subject to Section 232 tariff’s first “exemptions”
• Federal Register open to submissions on Section 232 tariff’s expansion