Indian steel prices rise after import duty announcement

Indian coil producers are targeting increased domestic selling prices following a proposal to apply a 12% preliminary safeguard duty to a range of flat steel imports. 

The provisional recommendations made by India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), announced last week, would see the measures implemented for a period of 200 days, if approved by the country’s Ministry of Finance. They cover hot rolled coils, sheets and plates. Downstream products, such as cold rolled coil/sheet, metallic coated coils/sheets and colour coated coils/sheets would also be subject to the proposed duty, if adopted.  

The provisional findings apply to developed nations but exclude developing countries, with the exception of China and Vietnam. Chinese steel imports are also subject to an antidumping duty of 7.5%.  

However, MEPS understands that DGTR’s initial recommendation falls significantly short of those requested by India’s steelmakers. 

• Insight from India’s steel market is featured in MEPS’s Developing Markets Steel Review. The monthly publication also includes market commentaries, prices and price indices from Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, UAE and China. Contact MEPS for details of how to subscribe. 

Under the proposed framework, the 12% safeguard duty will not be implemented if import prices are above minimum thresholds. For hot rolled coil and plate, these are USD675 per tonne CIF and USD695 per tonne CIF, respectively. Indian market participants report that a vast proportion of import prices currently quoted by third-country suppliers are substantially below this level. 

The DGTR is inviting feedback to its initial proposals within 30 days.  

India is a growing trade partner 

India is one of the fastest developing economies in the world. The OECD estimates that the country’s GDP will rise by 6.4% this year, and 6.6% in 2026 – significantly above its 3.1% global average. Infrastructure investments and growth from residential construction developments are among the catalysts for the economic expansion. 

India’s flat rolled steel mills are eager to take advantage of domestic growth opportunities and have been lobbying for increased trade defence measures to protect their market share from low-cost competition.  

In December, the DGTR launched its safeguards investigation following a rapid rise in steel imports. Finished steel volumes, into India, increased by 19.3% year-on-year in 2024. In the same period, imports of hot rolled sheets and strips totalled over 4.5 million tonnes, a rise of 30.2%. A vast proportion of these imports originated from East Asian countries, including: South Korea, up 10% year-on-year to 1.53m tonnes; Japan, up 143% year-on-year to 1.31m tonnes; and China, up 124% year-on-year to 0.98m tonnes. 

India becomes the latest country to introduce trade measures to protect its domestic producers. Protection comes at a cost, however. Coil and sheet-using industries, which are facing fierce competition at home and in traditional export markets, can expect India steel prices to rise as their supply options reduce. Indian credit rating agency ICRA expects Indian steel imports to decline by around 50% in the country’s 2026 financial year if the safeguard measures are adopted.  

Changing market dynamics 

Since the start of the DGTR investigation, Indian steel market participants have been hesitant about procuring imported material. In response, Indian steel mills are likely to prioritise domestic sales and, in turn, make less material available for export. European buyers of Indian-origin coils report that shipment times are already extending, as a result.  

India’s coil suppliers have raised their asking prices in their latest negotiations with local customers. Despite the lack of supply alternatives, downstream users are pushing back against these increases in a market where buying activity is currently limited ahead of the financial year-end. The measures are likely to gain some degree of support next month, however.    

If the proposed safeguard duty is implemented, India’s steel buyers expect domestic coil mills to table a further list hike of at least INR5,000 per tonne in the coming months. However, the implementation of any final duty is likely to coincide with the monsoon season, which is typically a period of low demand.