EU steelmakers eye 2018 to determine US tariffs’ impact

Revisions to the European Commission’s import safeguard measures may result in stricter controls than previously anticipated after President Trump pledged to impose 25% duties on US steel imports.

The United States’ new measures – to be introduced on March 12 – effectively removes any free-trade agreements, exemptions and product exclusions that were applied to Section 232’s tariffs following their introduction in 2018. The Commission will be under increased pressure to defend the European steel industry amid an expectation that additional low-cost material will be redirected from the US.  

• This article first appeared in February's edition of MEPS International's European Steel Review. The monthly Review features steel prices, indices, commentaries and forecasts covering key markets across Europe. Contact MEPS for details of how to subscribe.

European Steel Association (Eurofer) president, Dr Henrik Adam, said that around 3.7 million tonnes of EU steel exports would be affected by the new tariffs, along with 23m tonnes of material shipped to the US from other countries. Dr Adam has stated that the EU steel sector can neither afford to lose export sales at a time of such weak domestic demand or absorb an increased volume of imports. “In 2024 alone, the EU steel industry had to close nine million tonnes of capacity with over 18,000 job cuts announced”, he said, adding: “The Executive Order by President Trump will inevitably further exacerbate the situation.”  

Defending the EU steel industry’s profitability  

Eurofer wants the European Commission to tighten import quotas and extend its current safeguard measures beyond their current July 2026 expiry date.  

If it fails to act, any resulting decline in steel prices would harm a European steel industry already suffering the effects of tight profit margins. During February, MEPS respondents across the region expressed concerns about potential business failures in 2025. The low end of MEPS Europe Average hot rolled coil price rose by EUR20 per tonne during February. However, this was the result of increased input costs, and most suppliers were unable to pass on its full value to end-users.  

Market participants are divided on the potential imposition of tighter EU import controls. Many rerollers and distributors currently rely on low-cost Asian material to achieve profit margins. These margins have already been eroded by the market’s current low prices and the strength of the US dollar against the euro and pound.  

Attempts to assess tariffs’ effect  

Many steel buyers are looking back to 2018 to assess the possible effect of the US’s new 25% tariffs. US Section 232’s full influence was felt between its March implementation and the Covid-19 pandemic. Total EU-origin steel imports to the US rose by 1.2% to 4.73m tonnes in 2018, before falling by 17.9% (to 3.89m) in 2019. In Covid-19 affected 2020, US steel imports from the EU fell by a further 35.3%, to 2.52m tonnes.  

As steel-consuming sectors sought to meet pent-up demand, however, President Joe Biden agreed to replace 25% tariffs on EU steel with a new tariff rate quota system. EU steel imports into the US rose again, subsequently, exceeding four million tonnes in 2022. Nonetheless, US steel imports from the EU remained 13.8% down in the 2022-2024 period, when compared with pre-tariff 2015-2017.  

Now President Trump is seizing the opportunity to fully realise his earlier ambition of restricting steel imports. Germany, Europe’s largest steel producer (up 5.2% to 37.2m tonnes in 2024), stands to lose out most. In recent months, MEPS respondents in the EU have reported German suppliers’ increased activity across the region. This is a result of weak demand in the country’s domestic market. Similarly, German exports to the US rose by 2.8% in 2024 – reaching 974,178 tonnes.  

Steelmakers in Germany and the wider EU region are now awaiting the outcome, not only of revisions to the bloc’s own safeguard measures, but developments across the Atlantic.