US steel's sharp rise in imports reverses course 

US steel imports dropped sharply in June after reaching their highest level in over two years in May.

Weaker demand and lower US prices have been blamed for the June reversal. According to the US Census Bureau, steel imports reached 1.95 million tonnes in June, declining by almost 25% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year.  

Steel imports from the top 10 largest exporting countries to the US market also fell in June. The top source of imports, Canada, saw its volume of exports to the US drop by 3% month-on-month to 506,000 tonnes in June. South Korea and the Netherlands reported the largest declines, falling by 43% (190,000 tonnes) and 46% (37,200 tonnes), respectively.  

Meanwhile, China – the US market’s 12th largest source of imports – shipped 47,000 tonnes to the US in June. This was the highest volume of Chinese-origin imports in 2024, but in line with the 2023 monthly average. 

The largest category of US steel imports, flat products, recorded a decline of 20% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, to 806,000 tonnes, in June. Over the first half of 2024, however, the volume of flat product imports grew by 18% compared with the same period in 2023. The category was led by a 41% increase in hot dipped galvanised sheet imports, but imports of this product also reversed course in June, dropping by 13% (238,800 tonnes) month-on-month. One of the few products that reported higher month-on-month imports was hot rolled sheet, which rose by 7% (156,000 tonnes) in June.  

US imports from Vietnam rose more than those from any other country in the first half of 2024 to 610,000 tonnes, rising almost 200% compared with the first half of 2023. The increase was led by a 390% increase in hot dipped galvanised sheet. However, the growth in imports of this material slowed in June with a 38% month-on-month decline. 

US steel mills want to reduce transshipments from China 

US imports from Mexico have been steadily declining over the past few months. They dropped 32% month-on-month in June and almost 50% year-on-year to 191,000 tonnes. In June, the US and Mexico jointly issued a US tariff increase to 25% for Mexican steel unless the steel was poured and melted in North America. The US government wants to prevent countries such as China from circumventing its tariffs. 

Canadian steel producers have also been pushing the government to increase tariffs on Chinese steel, following in the footsteps of their North American partners. In May, President Joe Biden announced plans for an increase in Section 301 steel tariffs, from 7.5% to 25%. Additionally, Mexico placed a temporary tariff on Chinese products, including steel, in 2023. Steel producers in Canada do not want Chinese steel diverted to their market. Currently China is a distant second largest steel importer into Canada after the US. 

“Much attention has recently been placed on Mexican imports and more specifically Mexican imports from China,” says Laura Hodges, a US steel analyst from MEPS International. “While US imports from Mexico have pulled back, Mexico has been importing more steel from China.”  

Mexican imports rose by 61% in 2023 to 17.5 million tonnes, with imports from China leading the way, rising by an equivalent 61%, to 1.07 million tonnes, last year. Despite recent Mexican tariffs, Mexican imports from China rose by 10% through the first four months of 2024. 

Low steel prices keep imports at bay 

Low domestic steel prices reduce the incentive to import. MEPS International reported the base price for US hot rolled coil at USD700 per short ton in June and USD650 in July. Hot rolled coil prices have dropped by 38% since the beginning of the year.  

While domestic suppliers, such as Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs, have begun raising their prices in August, MEPS does not expect steel prices to return to the high levels seen earlier this year until stronger steel market activity returns. Considering raised transport costs and longer delivery times, low domestic prices currently make imports uncompetitive to US buyers and should keep US imports near the two million-tonne mark in July and August. 

• Monthly insight on the United States carbon steel market is published in MEPS's International Steel Review. The country's stainless steel market is also covered in the Stainless Steel Review. These monthly reports provide subscribers with steel prices, indices, market commentary and forecasts from key global steel markets.