US steel imports rise for third time in a decade

Steel imports into the United States increased by 3.4% in 2024, according to December’s preliminary licence application data from the US Commerce Department.

The apparent increase was identified just days ahead of the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to reduce the appeal of imported material through the application of new tariffs, and defies recent US trends.  

Increased US steel imports have been recorded in just two of the previous 10 years. The first instance was a 15.3% rise in 2017, the year before Section 232 tariffs were implemented. The second came in 2021, which recorded a 43% rebound from 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.  

• Insight from the United States steel market is featured in MEPS’s monthly International Steel Review. The publication also includes market commentaries, prices, price indices and six-month price forecasts from Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as seven European steelmaking states. 

 Last year the US steel market experienced declining prices amid a variety of disruptive influences. Among them were uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the presidential election and the acquisition of US Steel, the opening of new trade defence cases and the addition of new production capacity. 

The year started with the highest hot rolled coil price recorded by MEPS in the 12-month period and ended with its lowest. High steel prices at the beginning of the year added to the US’s appeal as an export destination. Import volumes peaked in April and May before stabilising at almost two million tonnes, a level which was maintained in each month for the remainder of the year.  

While the provisional import licence data published by the US Commerce Department is still subject to revision, it indicates that US imports jumped by 15% month-on-month and 16% year-on-year in December. This could reflect efforts to process imports before the introduction of proposed new tariffs following the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump. 

Hot dipped galvanised sheet and wire rod import growth 

The largest new trade case initiated during 2024 was an antidumping and countervailing investigation into CORE steel (or corrosive-resistant steel), imports from 10 countries, opened in early September.  

Imports of hot dipped galvanised steel – the US’s most imported flat product in the period – rose by 35% in 2024. The top five import sources were Canada, Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil and South Korea. These countries made up almost 75% of total hot dipped galvanised imports, and each saw their imports rise last year. Canadian imports rose by only 2.7%, however, as Vietnamese imports jumped by 420%.  

The final ruling on the CORE steel trade case is expected by mid-2025.  

Wire rod recorded the largest increase in long product import volumes into the US last year, increasing by 19%. The top five sources of wire rod imports were Canada, Japan, Brazil, Germany and Algeria. Together they accounted for 80% of the volume that entered the US in 2024. 

Low-cost wire rod imports have recently been blamed for the idling of two steel plants in the US. In October, Liberty Steel Peoria announced that it was temporarily halting wire rod production, and in January, Nucor idled wire rod production at its Connecticut plant. At the time of writing, neither Liberty Steel nor Nucor has committed to a reopening date.  

Vietnamese imports recorded largest gains 

Overall, Vietnam posted the largest increase across all steel products imported into the US last year, with a 130% rise in volumes. The increase meant that Vietnam rose from the 9th largest source of US steel imports to the 5th. Hot dipped galvanised sheet was the country’s largest export, accounting for more than 35% of Vietnamese material that entered the US. Vietnam is one of the 10 countries named in the US CORE steel trade case and may be subject to both antidumping and countervailing duties in 2025.  

MEPS International does not expect another increase in US steel imports in 2025, due to the prospect of newly introduced tariffs. President-elect Trump has already vowed 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.  

Mexico, Canada and China are the top three sources of US imports of all goods. Canada was the US's largest source of imported steel in 2024, followed by Brazil and Mexico. Chinese steel imports currently represent less than 2% of all steel imports coming into the US.  

While MEPS International is expecting stronger steel demand in 2025, reduced steel imports should not impact domestic steel supply, particularly of flat products, due to an increase in domestic production capacity.