Podcast: Interest rates and imports key to US steel outlook

Improving steel demand and reduced imports present upside risks to United States price forecasts recently downgraded as a result of a “higher for longer” outlook for interest rates.

MEPS International’s US steel market analyst Laura Hodges explored the various factors at play as she shared an overview of an eventful start to 2025 for the US steel market in the latest Market in Minutes podcast. The nine-minute episode draws on research for MEPS’s International Steel Review and the latest market developments. 

Hodges told MEPS managing editor Tom Sharpe that the country’s market had started as it finished 2024, with low demand supressing steel prices. However, she reported that “signs of life” began to appear in the month that included the inauguration of new US President Donald Trump. Wire rod prices rose by USD50 per short ton due to a loss of domestic supply and reduced imports, Hodges revealed. 

She added: “The new administration, led by President Donald Trump, with fewer regulations, should also improve steel demand as we move into 2025.” 

The latest Market in Minutes podcast episode is available now via the following podcast platforms. 

YouTube

Spotify 

Apple Podcasts 

Watch the latest Market in Minutes episode to hear MEPS’s quick overview of the US steel market, including:

• Business sentiment reaches three-year high. 
• The need for an uptick in demand from the US automotive and construction sectors.
• President Trump’s tariff threats to reduce import volumes.
• Expectations of demand growth under the country’s new administration.
• Interest rates to remain higher for longer, potentially slowing growth potential. 

Earlier this week, MEPS analysed the possible effects of 25% US import tariffs on steel products from its North American neighbours, Canada and Mexico. In the article, Hodges said that the proposed tariffs – subsequently put on hold for one month – had the potential to “raise US steel prices by at least 10-15% above previous forecasts for the first half of the year”, assuming they remained in place. 

Regular North America steel market insight features in MEPS’s International Steel Review. The monthly publication provides steel prices, price indices, market commentaries and six-month price forecasts from the US, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as seven European steelmaking states. Contact MEPS for subscription details.