MEPS forecasts provide clarity amid uncertainty 

An increase in import tariffs and other trade defence measures has left steel market participants in no doubt about the complex and ever-evolving factors that influence global steel prices.

MEPS International is ideally placed to provide the accurate and reliable forecasts they need to plan ahead and gain a competitive advantage. 

MEPS has more than 45 years of experience researching and analysing trends in the steel market, and wider economic landscape, to assess their effect on the prices of a range of flat and long steel products. Coupled with a robust methodology, this expertise results in an average 12-month forecast accuracy above 90%. 

How MEPS forecasts steel prices 

MEPS considers a wide range of factors to ensure the accuracy of the price forecasts provided to its subscribers. 

One of the key influences is the cost of steelmaking raw materials, including iron ore, coking coal and ferrous scrap. MEPS accounts for the cost of gas, electricity and carbon in its forecasts. Furthermore, the impact of weather patterns is assessed. 

MEPS also accounts for the effect of fluctuations in currency exchange rates. 

For stainless steel forecasts, MEPS’s analysis extends to nickel, nickel pig iron, ferrochrome, molybdenum and stainless steel scrap costs.  

However, steel production costs are not the only drivers of price fluctuations – supply dynamics also play a significant role. At MEPS, the flow of steel into markets, whether from domestic producers or via imports, is closely monitored.  

The value of imported steel can significantly influence local selling prices, especially in countries where imports hold a large market share or when import volumes shift rapidly. 

Trade policies and market influences 

Sudden changes in import volumes are often linked to trade policy amendments. MEPS evaluates the impact of antidumping and countervailing measures, tariffs, quotas, and broader trade conflicts that may arise. Additionally, its forecasting team considers the effect of green trade policies, such as the EU’s and UK’s upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026 and 2027, respectively. 

Other factors influencing supply include production volumes and mill delivery lead times, plant outages, the introduction of new production capacity and shifts in inventory levels.  

At the heart of MEPS’s research are insights, gathered from steel buyers and sellers across the world, which allow its analysts to understand their current sentiment, purchasing intentions, and whether they plan to build or reduce inventories in the coming months. 

Demand analysis and forecasting techniques 

MEPS’s forecasts also incorporate insight from external economic indicators, including Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, for the following steel-consuming sectors:

• Automotive
• Construction
• Infrastructure
• Manufacturing
• Energy 

Furthermore, MEPS’s forecasters monitor and analyse GDP trends and economic sentiment indices when formulating forecast models. 

To develop accurate forecasts, MEPS utilises mathematical models, regression analysis and the study of macro cycles in steel prices, alongside analysis of seasonal patterns through time series modelling.  

The business is now exploring AI-driven forecasting techniques to further enhance its model. By combining AI technology with its industry expertise, MEPS hopes to set new standards in steel price forecasting. 

Benefits of MEPS steel price forecasts 

Subscribers to MEPS’s steel price forecasts benefit in many ways. Not only does this view of future price trends help them to budget for the year ahead with greater accuracy, but it also supports effective sales forecasting by providing valuable insights into market trends.  

Armed with reliable data, businesses can enhance their risk management strategies. Additionally, having a clear understanding of future price movements provides them with the tools they need to negotiate better contract terms in negotiations with suppliers and customers. 

Ultimately, MEPS subscribers gain a competitive advantage, enabling them to make informed, strategic decisions that drive profitability and growth. 

Decades of expertise in steel price forecasting 

MEPS has been publishing steel price forecasts for over 20 years, guiding customers through significant industry events, including:

• China’s rise as the dominant global steel producer
• The 2008/2009 global financial crisis
• The implementation of US Section 232 tariffs and European safeguard measures
• Supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic
• The Russia-Ukraine war
• The transition towards decarbonisation and the introduction of CBAM in the EU and UK 

As the steel industry continues to evolve, MEPS’s commitment to providing its customers with the insight and data required to navigate current and future challenges is stronger than ever.  

If you would like to see how MEPS's insights can support your business, get in touch or subscribe today.