EU antidumping probe deepens steel importers’ cost concerns 

Potential duties may increase the cost of EU imports of certain cold rolled flat steel products from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam after the European Commission opened a new antidumping investigation, this month.  

A notice published by the Commission on September 18 said that the antidumping investigation was prompted by a complaint from the European steel industry association, Eurofer, on August 4. It will cover the period from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025.   

The Commission indicated that dumping margins could be in the range of 10% to 50%, raising the prospect of costly new duties. Provisional measures can be imposed within seven months, with four weeks’ notice given before any duties are applied.  

The investigation represents a further escalation in the EU’s trade defence measures against imports from India, Japan and Vietnam, in particular. Importers are currently awaiting the outcome of an antidumping investigation into hot rolled coil originating from these countries, which is due to be resolved in mid-October.  

Many EU steel importers have already stopped placing new orders as they await clarity on the cost of CBAM taxes, applicable from January 1, 2026. The Commission has yet to publish the emissions benchmarks required to calculate their potential cost.  

However, MEPS respondents say that certain steel suppliers in China, India and South Korea, and some large European traders, are now quoting prices which include the estimated cost of CBAM taxes and other duties. Some material has been booked on these terms. Most suppliers estimate the cost of CBAM at EUR40-70 per tonne.  

EU safeguard revisions reduce cold rolled steel imports  

The application of antidumping duties to imports of cold rolled flat steel products from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam could further support demand on EU mills. Shipments from these countries – five of the EU’s largest third-country sources of cold rolled steel – accounted for 67.7% of EU imports in 2024, totalling almost 1.85 million tonnes.  

Imports under the EU’s Non Alloy and Other Alloy Cold Rolled Sheets category declined by 5% in the first five months of 2025, reaching 1.11m tonnes. This decline followed the April 1 implementation of revisions to the EU safeguard measures, which introduced 13% volume caps to individual countries’ use of the “other countries” quota category. Volumes rose by 26.2% year-on-year in the January to March period before falling by 39.9% year-on-year in April and May.

India is the only country that is subject to the new antidumping investigation into cold rolled coil imports that has its own tariff-rate quota under the EU’s current import safeguard measures. Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam, meanwhile, are each subject to the 13% caps. All four countries exceeded these limits in the quarter three quota period. The quarter four period opens on October 1. MEPS respondents expect countries’ tariff-free allocations to be quickly filled in the final quota period before the application of CBAM taxes.  

Nonetheless, in a market suffering from low steel demand, prices continue to be under negative pressure. Eurofer’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook predicted that apparent steel consumption will decline by 0.9% this year, marking a fourth consecutive annual downturn. Its earlier forecast had estimated growth of 2.2%. Many MEPS respondents in the EU report larger declines in their order volumes.  

During the first nine months of this year, the low end of the MEPS Europe Average cold rolled coil price was, on average, 9.3% down year-on-year. In July, the MEPS price range declined further, to a nine-month low. Prices have since registered a modest increase.