Antidumping duties raise Vietnam's HRC prices 

Hot rolled coil prices are expected to rise in Vietnam following this month’s introduction of preliminary antidumping tariffs on Chinese-origin steel imports.  

The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade implemented the antidumping duty on hot rolled coils to mitigate the damage caused to the country’s steel industry by low-cost imports. The initial antidumping rates, which apply to hot rolled coil measuring up to 1,880mm wide, are 19.38% for Liuzhou Steel and 26.94% for Yanshan Steel. All other Chinese exporters face a duty of 27.83%. The duties took effect on March 8 and are valid for 120 days.  

MEPS International steel market analyst, Chris Jackson, said that the introduction of trade measures by the Vietnamese authorities against Chinese hot rolled coil was “reflective of growing protectionism in global steel markets”.  

Jackson, who shared insight in MEPS International’s recent Market in Minutes podcast on East Asia’s steel market, added: “Vietnamese producers’ growth aspirations are dependent on the country’s ability to limit the Chinese threat to their domestic market while, in turn, retaining access to key global markets, such as Europe and North America.” 

Vietnam’s growing steel production ambitions 

Vietnam has rapidly expanded its crude steel production in recent years. Domestic production exceeded 22 million tonnes in 2024 – an increase of 14.9% year-on-year.  The production of long products, such as reinforcing bar and wire rod, constitutes a large proportion of this volume. Domestic supply of hot rolled coil is growing, however. 

Investments in several of Vietnam’s steel plants are planned for this year. Among the projects is Hoa Phat’s development of a 5.6m tonnes per annum blast furnace. SunPro Steel is developing another facility in Hau Giang. 

While protecting their home market, Vietnamese mills are eager to increase their own production and grow sales. Increased exports will be ey to achieving their ambitions. 

The rapid rise in Vietnamese steel production is being threatened by a significant increase in steel imports, however. In 2024, Vietnam was China’s largest steel export destination as its exports grew by 22.7% to a record high of 110.72m tonnes.  

Vietnamese steel producer Hoa Phat raised its domestic hot roll coil list prices by USD10 per tonne in March. Vietnam’s steel buyers say that the increase was smaller than anticipated, attributing this to low market demand and oversupply, with high stocks present throughout the supply chain. 

Low-cost import options 

Despite this month’s implementation of antidumping duties, China remains among Vietnamese buyers’ cheapest supply options. MEPS’s research contacts say that Chinese hot rolled coil offers, for March/April shipment, were below USD500 per tonne in recent negotiations.  

Offers from Japanese sources are competitive, while South Korean and Indonesian offers are USD20-40 per tonne higher than the Chinese values. Similarly, low-cost prices are offered by Indian mills. However, Indian-origin hot rolled coil, which was subject to the same initial trade investigation as the same product from China, will not be subject to any antidumping duty.  

Vietnamese mills’ hot rolled coil prices will continue to be challenged by low-cost imports. 

In the absence of trade legislation, China has, so far, had almost free rein to sell large quantities of hot rolled coil into Vietnam. Chinese steelmakers have been prepared to sell hot rolled coil at extremely low prices due to the presence of punitive trade defence measures in many other parts of the world, including Europe and North America. 

Antidumping duty against Chinese hot rolled coil imports will raise Vietnam’s domestic market prices in the near term. Despite the ongoing antidumping investigation, however, substantial deliveries of material from China are likely to persist in the short-to-medium term. 

Faced with weak domestic demand, Chinese producers’ focus on neighbouring markets shows no sign of diminishing.